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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.20 xG and Ratchaburi 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Ratchaburi attack 1.40 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 27% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 42%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights