Prachuap 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Prachuap, 4 for Ratchaburi and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 2–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 50% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 50% | Ratchaburi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.20 xG and Ratchaburi 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.930 / defence 0.920 | Ratchaburi attack 1.398 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.177. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Prachuap games / 36 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 27% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 42%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Ratchaburi 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 27% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Prachuap 1.20 / Ratchaburi 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.930 / def 0.920 | Ratchaburi attack 1.398 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ratchaburi xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 27% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Record (8 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 4W.
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
27%
3.65
31%
3.26
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.71
1.51
Ratchaburi xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.51 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 13W 11D 12L from 36 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 9L across 36 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 10W 6D 2L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 9W 3D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.03 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 44%, Ratchaburi 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Prachuap and 61% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Prachuap's recent matches and 61% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Prachuap's matches and 61% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Prachuap and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.20 xG and Ratchaburi 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Ratchaburi attack 1.40 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 27% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 42%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.