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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Prachuap 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Prachuap 0-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.08 xG and Port FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Prachuap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Port FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 36% | Draw 39% | Port FC 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 48%, Port FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Port FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.45 PPG, Port FC 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights