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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Prachuap take on Port FC.

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Analysis

Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 28 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Prachuap have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Port FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Prachuap against 1.80 for Port FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Prachuap winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Port FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 48% | Port FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.08 xG and Port FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.911 / defence 0.757 | Port FC attack 0.939 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.219. Port FC's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Prachuap games / 42 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 36% | Draw 39% | Port FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.78 | Draw 2.56 | Port FC 4.00. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Port FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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