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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.24 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.96 / defence 0.72 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.01 / defence 1.53, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 67% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 12%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 48%, Lamphun Warrior 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights