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Poisson model favours Prachuap (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Lamphun Warrior.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Prachuap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Prachuap winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Prachuap in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 50% versus Lamphun Warrior 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 48% | Lamphun Warrior 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 2.24 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.964 / defence 0.719 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.010 / defence 1.530. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.212. Lamphun Warrior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.530 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Prachuap games / 40 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 67% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 12%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Lamphun Warrior 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.

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