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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chiangrai United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.37 xG and Chiangrai United 0.84 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Chiangrai United attack 0.75 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 71% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 11%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Chiangrai United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights