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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap and Buriram United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap and Buriram United finished level at 1-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.40 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Buriram United attack 1.43 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 28% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 45%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 49%, Buriram United 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights