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Stalemate at Prachuap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap and Bangkok United finished level at 0-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.11 xG and Bangkok United 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Bangkok United attack 0.96 / defence 0.68, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 34% | Draw 35% | Bangkok United 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 44%, Bangkok United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bangkok United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights