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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC finished level at 4-4 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.16 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 0.80 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 36% | Draw 36% | Ayutthaya FC 28%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 31%, Ayutthaya FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.31 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights