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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port FC and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.83 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 22%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 66%, Uthai Thani 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights