Port FC 4-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Rayong FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Port FC 1W, Rayong FC 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 69% and Rayong FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 59% | Rayong FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.69 xG and Rayong FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.076 | Rayong FC attack 0.872 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.274. Data: 59 Port FC games / 29 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Rayong FC 3.85. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Rayong FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Port FC 1.69 / Rayong FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.904 / def 1.076 | Rayong FC attack 0.872 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Port FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rayong FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Port FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 30 April 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Port FC 4 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Port FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Port FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 48% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Port FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Rayong FC?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Port FC and Rayong FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Port FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Rayong FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (0.87x) against Port FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.83
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.20
Rayong FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Port FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Port FC and 1.20 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 12W 9D 8L from 29 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 13L across 29 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Current Season
Rayong FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 4-1 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rayong FC 5-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Rayong FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 71%, Rayong FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Port FC and 64% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rayong FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Port FC's games and 57% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Port FC's matches and 64% of Rayong FC's.
Do Port FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Rayong FC 4-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.69 xG and Rayong FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Rayong FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 48% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 26%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 59%, Rayong FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.