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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Ratchaburi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Ratchaburi 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.99 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.43 / defence 0.75 against Ratchaburi attack 1.38 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 57% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 21%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 51%, Ratchaburi 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port FC 1.66 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights