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Poisson model rates Port FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Port FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Port FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port FC 2.00 PPG, Ratchaburi 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Port FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Port FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 55% versus Ratchaburi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 51% | Ratchaburi 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.99 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.425 / defence 0.754 | Ratchaburi attack 1.383 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.089. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Port FC's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Port FC games / 47 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Ratchaburi 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.

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