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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port FC and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC and Ratchaburi finished level at 3-3 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.98 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Ratchaburi attack 1.12 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 67%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port FC 1.79 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights