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Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Prachuap 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.89 xG and Prachuap 0.74 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.72 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 62% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 53%, Prachuap 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Prachuap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port FC 1.73 PPG, Prachuap 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights