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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Port FC 0-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.93 xG and Prachuap 1.30 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Prachuap attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 52% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 25%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 64%, Prachuap 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Prachuap's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights