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Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Lamphun Warrior 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.09 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.71 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.72 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 10%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights