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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Lamphun Warrior 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.07 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 50% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 66%, Lamphun Warrior 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights