Port FC 2-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 8 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.40 PPG versus Lamphun Warrior's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port FC, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 70% and Lamphun Warrior 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 66% | Lamphun Warrior 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.905 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.034 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.146. Data: 44 Port FC games / 44 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 50% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 4.55. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 60% | Lamphun Warrior 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 50% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Port FC 1.68 / Lamphun Warrior 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.066 / def 0.905 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.034 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Port FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Lamphun Warrior xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 8 January 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC 2 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 50% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Port FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.58
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.07
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Port FC and 1.07 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 44 games, going 23W 14D 7L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (13W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 15W 3D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.43 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 23W 14D 7L in their last 44 games (1.89 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Port FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 9 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 64%, Lamphun Warrior 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Port FC and 59% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Port FC's recent matches and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Port FC's matches and 59% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Port FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Lamphun Warrior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.07 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 50% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 66%, Lamphun Warrior 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.