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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Buriram United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Buriram United 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.89 xG and Buriram United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.63 against Buriram United attack 1.42 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 58% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 17%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Buriram United 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.76. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights