Pattani vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Pattani take on Chonburi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Chonburi FC meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Pattani (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.11 xG and Chonburi FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.699 / defence 0.986 | Chonburi FC attack 1.038 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Pattani's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 30 Chonburi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pattani 35% | Draw 36% | Chonburi FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Chonburi FC 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 35% | Draw 36% | Chonburi FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Pattani 1.11 / Chonburi FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.699 / def 0.986 | Chonburi FC attack 1.038 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Chonburi FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Pattani vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Thursday 24 December 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Chonburi FC part of?
Pattani vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 35% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pattani and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Chonburi FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.70x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.04x) against Pattani's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 1/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
36%
2.77
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.09
0.98
Chonburi FC xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pattani and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pattani and 0.98 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pattani come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 0% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 0% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.