Ratchaburi vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Pattani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 20 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pattani (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Ratchaburi's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.89 xG and Pattani 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.147 / defence 1.001 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Ratchaburi games / 1 Pattani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 59% | Draw 23% | Pattani 18%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Pattani 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 59% | Draw 23% | Pattani 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Ratchaburi 1.89 / Pattani 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.147 / def 1.001 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Pattani xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Pattani kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Pattani part of?
Ratchaburi vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 59% chance of winning, Pattani a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ratchaburi and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Pattani in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Pattani's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Pattani's attack (0.85x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.32
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.81
0.93
Pattani xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
37.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.93 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Pattani in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Pattani tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.