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Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Uthai Thani 3-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Uthai Thani 1.54 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.48 against Uthai Thani attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Uthai Thani 45%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%, Uthai Thani 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights