🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.62 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.97 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 15%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%, Sukhothai FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights