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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Chiangrai United 1.70 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Chiangrai United attack 1.27 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 46%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.87 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights