Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-5 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.01 xG and Buriram United 1.48 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.48 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Buriram United attack 1.28 / defence 0.69, drawn from 14/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 46%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43%, Buriram United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights