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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Buriram United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Buriram United.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Buriram United to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Buriram United away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Buriram United have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 0–4 with Buriram United winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Buriram United in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 64% versus Buriram United 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Buriram United 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.01 xG and Buriram United 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.861 / defence 1.046 | Buriram United attack 1.285 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.101. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 42 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Buriram United 2.17. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 83% | Buriram United 40% BTTS from recent games.

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