Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-5 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Buriram United to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Buriram United have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 0–4 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 64% versus Buriram United 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Buriram United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.01 xG and Buriram United 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.861 / defence 1.046 | Buriram United attack 1.285 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.101. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 42 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Buriram United 2.17. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 83% | Buriram United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.01 / Buriram United 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.861 / def 1.046 | Buriram United attack 1.285 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Buriram United xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 5 Buriram United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 23% chance of winning, Buriram United a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
Record (4 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 4W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Buriram United's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
23%
4.26
31%
3.23
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.48
Buriram United xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
18.72
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.48 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 5W 6D 3L from 14 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 0L across 14 games — 2.57 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Ratchasima FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 4W 2D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 3.29 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Buriram United in 29%.
Defensively: Buriram United in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 6D 3L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 11W 3D 0L in their last 14 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Buriram United in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Buriram United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 83%, Buriram United 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 17% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-5 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.01 xG and Buriram United 1.48 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.48 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Buriram United attack 1.28 / defence 0.69, drawn from 14/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 46%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43%, Buriram United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.