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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.86 xG and BG Pathum United 1.19 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.00 against BG Pathum United attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% | Draw 36% | BG Pathum United 41%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, BG Pathum United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights