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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Bangkok United 1-0 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.62 xG and Bangkok United 1.00 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.03 against Bangkok United attack 0.89 / defence 0.63, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% | Draw 40% | Bangkok United 41%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%, Bangkok United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Bangkok United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights