Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ayutthaya FC make the trip to 80th Birthday Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 80th Birthday Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.00 for Ayutthaya FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Ratchasima FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ayutthaya FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Ayutthaya FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% and Ayutthaya FC 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36% | Ayutthaya FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.727 / defence 1.083 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.225. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 11 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 26% | Draw 34% | Ayutthaya FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Ayutthaya FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 26% | Draw 34% | Ayutthaya FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 / Ayutthaya FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.727 / def 1.083 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.089 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Ayutthaya FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 1 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 26% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.73) and Ayutthaya FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.09x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
26%
3.81
34%
2.98
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.45
Ayutthaya FC xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.16
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.45 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 4D 6L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 2W 4D 5L from 11 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.64 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 0.91 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.91 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 91%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 0.50 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, Ayutthaya FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 75% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 75% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 75% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ayutthaya FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.08 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 26% | Draw 34% | Ayutthaya FC 40%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36%, Ayutthaya FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.64 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.