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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Pathom 1-6 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 2.72 xG, a combined 4.36. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 2.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.82 / defence 1.44 against Ratchaburi attack 1.49 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 21% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 60%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights