Nakhon Pathom 1-6 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to face Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 30 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Pathom have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ratchaburi are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Ratchaburi in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Pathom lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 66% and Ratchaburi 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Ratchaburi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 2.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.823 / defence 1.436 | Ratchaburi attack 1.488 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.274. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.488 — the away xG of 2.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Nakhon Pathom games / 59 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 21% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 60%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 4.76 | Draw 5.26 | Ratchaburi 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 80% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 21% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 76% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.64 / Ratchaburi 2.72 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.823 / def 1.436 | Ratchaburi attack 1.488 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
2.72
Ratchaburi xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 30 April 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 6 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 21% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 2W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.49x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.72.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.0%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
21%
4.69
19%
5.38
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
4.36
2.72
Ratchaburi xG
4.69
21%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.14
Clean Sheet
7%
15.24
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
1%
71.49
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 2.72 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 4.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nakhon Pathom's recent record stands at 13W 17D 29L from 59 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 21L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Pathom heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nakhon Pathom have managed 8W 7D 14L from 29 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 8W 8D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.66 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Current Season
Ratchaburi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 25W 13D 21L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.07 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-6 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-6 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 72%, Ratchaburi 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Nakhon Pathom) and 48% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 52% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 48% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Pathom 1-6 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 2.72 xG, a combined 4.36. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 2.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.82 / defence 1.44 against Ratchaburi attack 1.49 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 21% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 60%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.