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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Pathom and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Nakhon Pathom and Port FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.99 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Port FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 23% | Draw 22% | Port FC 55%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Port FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights