Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Pathom beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.63 / defence 1.34 against Chiangrai United attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 36%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nakhon Pathom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.88 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights