Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.63x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
30%
3.38
35%
2.87
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.14
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.13 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.