Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Chiangrai United at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chiangrai United — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Chiangrai United 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Pathom trading profile (43 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United trading profile (43 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Pathom 65% versus Chiangrai United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Chiangrai United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.633 / defence 1.336 | Chiangrai United attack 0.758 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.115. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Nakhon Pathom games / 43 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 36%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Chiangrai United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 50% | Chiangrai United 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.01 / Chiangrai United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.633 / def 1.336 | Chiangrai United attack 0.758 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 30% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.63x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
30%
3.38
35%
2.87
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.14
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.13 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 43 games, going 9W 11D 23L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.05 PPG from 43 outings (11W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 0.88 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nakhon Pathom's home form reads 5W 4D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.93 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 11D 23L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Chiangrai United away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.00 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Nakhon Pathom or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Pathom have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Chiangrai United 3-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 63%, Chiangrai United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Nakhon Pathom) and 53% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Pathom have failed to score in 26% of games; Chiangrai United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 47% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 53% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.63 / defence 1.34 against Chiangrai United attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 36%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nakhon Pathom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.88 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.