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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Nakhon Pathom 1-4 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.17 xG and BG Pathum United 1.35 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 1.24 against BG Pathum United attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 62%, BG Pathum United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (53 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (53 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights