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Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.84 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.29 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Sukhothai FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 48% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 25%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, Sukhothai FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.50 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights