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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.30 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.54 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.79 / defence 1.50 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 31% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 42%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 55%, Lamphun Warrior 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.18 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights