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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Muangthong United and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United and BG Pathum United finished level at 1-1 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 0.80 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against BG Pathum United attack 1.00 / defence 0.65, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 22% | Draw 35% | BG Pathum United 43%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, BG Pathum United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights