🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 25%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 58%, Sukhothai FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights