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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.52 xG and Ratchaburi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Ratchaburi attack 1.30 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 33%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 48%, Ratchaburi 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights