Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Mae Guang Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.38 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.38 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nakhon Pathom in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 50% and Nakhon Pathom 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lamphun Warrior 62% | Nakhon Pathom 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.91 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.864 / defence 1.036 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.053 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.269. Nakhon Pathom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Lamphun Warrior games / 8 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Nakhon Pathom 3.70. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Nakhon Pathom 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.91 / Nakhon Pathom 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.864 / def 1.036 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.053 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Nakhon Pathom xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (1.05x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.14
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.29
1.38
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
4%
24.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.38 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 1D 6L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamphun Warrior won 0-3 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Lamphun Warrior, 75% for Nakhon Pathom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lamphun Warrior and 75% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Pathom 2-0 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.91 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.38 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Nakhon Pathom attack 1.05 / defence 1.28, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 62%, Nakhon Pathom 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.