Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at 700th Anniversary Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Muangthong United are 0.50 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Muangthong United in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Muangthong United, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 1–5 with Muangthong United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Muangthong United have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Muangthong United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 53% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.89 xG and Muangthong United 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.135 / defence 1.279 | Muangthong United attack 0.903 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.190. Data: 36 Lamphun Warrior games / 36 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 3.85. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Muangthong United (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Muangthong United 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.89 / Muangthong United 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.135 / def 1.279 | Muangthong United attack 0.903 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Muangthong United xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 48% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United?
Record (6 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 5W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 1.14x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.90x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.27
1.38
Muangthong United xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
4%
25.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.38 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 10W 12D 14L from 36 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 13L across 36 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.47 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 3W 6D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.47 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 12D 14L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Muangthong United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.50 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 0-5 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Muangthong United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 56%, Muangthong United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 50% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Muangthong United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 67% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 50% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.89 xG and Muangthong United 1.38 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.14 / defence 1.28 against Muangthong United attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 53%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.17 PPG, Muangthong United 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.