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Stalemate at Lamphun Warrior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.66 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Chiangrai United attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 29%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 47%, Chiangrai United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.10 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights