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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Chiangrai United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Chiangrai United 1-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.88 xG and Chiangrai United 0.89 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Chiangrai United attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 60% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 17%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 58%, Chiangrai United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.21 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights