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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-3 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.50 xG and Buriram United 1.47 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Buriram United attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 35%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 43%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights