Lamphun Warrior 2-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Buriram United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 16 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamphun Warrior at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.90 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Buriram United hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 50% versus Buriram United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 43% | Buriram United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.50 xG and Buriram United 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.966 / defence 0.990 | Buriram United attack 1.136 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.304. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 30 Buriram United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Buriram United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 50% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.50 / Buriram United 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.966 / def 0.990 | Buriram United attack 1.136 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Buriram United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 36% chance of winning, Buriram United a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
Record (6 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 5W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.14x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.40
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.97
1.47
Buriram United xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.47 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 9W 10D 11L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Buriram United's form line: 22W 4D 4L from 30 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. Buriram United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 10W 3D 2L from 15 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 3.07 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Buriram United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 22W 4D 4L in their last 30 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.67 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Buriram United in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Buriram United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 47%, Buriram United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Lamphun Warrior and 73% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Buriram United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 60% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 73% of Buriram United's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-3 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.50 xG and Buriram United 1.47 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Buriram United attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 35%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 43%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.