Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 0.90 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Ayutthaya FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.37 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.935 / defence 1.339 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Lamphun Warrior games / 31 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Ayutthaya FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Ayutthaya FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.37 / Ayutthaya FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.935 / def 1.339 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Ayutthaya FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 36% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
36%
2.82
26%
3.77
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.79
1.42
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.42 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 4W 17D 10L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 9W 8D 14L from 31 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.94 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (2W 10D 3L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 10L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.07 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 73%, Ayutthaya FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 47% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 53% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 47% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.